Dealing With the Remnants of ISIS

Bottom Line: The United States no longer needs to deploy forces against ISIS, which it functionally defeated in 2019. It’s time for the United States to reevaluate its “priorities and strategy in Iraq and Syria.”

ISIS’ power peaked in 2015, when it controlled a physical caliphate “the size of Great Britain” and “an army of perhaps 60,000, reportedly including 30,000 foreign fighters.” That caliphate was destroyed “when the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) declared victory after the Battle of Baghuz Fawqani in March 2019.” The U.S. led that battle, providing the majority of airpower and advising allied ground forces.

After this defeat and the recent killing of ISIS founder Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, ISIS was functionally defeated. Simply put, “the rationale for military intervention in Iraq and Syria has ended.”

However, ISIS still has around 18,000 members and between $50 million and $300 million. Its remnants will continue as an insurgency, operating where they can and taking credit for attacks carried out by its global affiliates. ISIS will also continue to disseminate propaganda as best it can. The group poses a limited threat in Iraq and Syria, and current/former members could act as lone wolves around the world.

That said, ISIS is not currently a threat to Iraq or Syria, and certainly not to the United States. And other regional powers -- Iraq and Syria, as well as Turkey and and Iran -- oppose ISIS, and can “employ far more combat power against an ISIS resurgence than the remaining U.S. forces in Syria can.”

Indeed, only regional powers will be able to fully defeat ISIS. As the past two decades of American involvement in the Middle East show, “An insurgency can only suffer enduring defeat at the hands of the government it attempts to overthrow and only with brutal tactics no liberal society would sanction.” Fortunately for the United States, regional powers have both the incentive and the capability to continue battling and possibly destroy ISIS.

The United States can help counter the remnants of ISIS without keeping troops deployed in the area. The United States should remove all troops from Iraq and Syria, and accept that both countries’ forces are best suited to handle ISIS. The United States should also avoid confrontation with Shiite Iran, which acts as an effective counterbalance to the Sunni ISIS.

On a more active level, the United States can continue to respond to credible threats and use its military capabilities to monitor ISIS’ activities in the region and around the world. Finally, the United States can “use diplomatic and financial tools to compel other countries to repatriate, punish, and deradicalize all foreign ISIS fighters and their families.”

Read the full report here.