Estimating Lost Turnpike Revenues From Virus Lockdown

Bottom Line: The pandemic has dramatically exposed the ill-conceived reliance on toll revenues to fund mass transit.

The Pennsylvania Turnpike has experienced a sharp decline in traffic since the lockdown began mid-March and the revenue losses are piling up. During January and February 2020, passenger vehicles counts on the mainline turnpike had seen increases over those same two months one year earlier of 2 and 4.5 percent, respectively. The estimate to passenger vehicle traffic counts for the months of March through June (without a lockdown) was also assumed to be 2 percent over 2019 levels.

Revenues per passenger vehicle for 2020 is estimated to be $4.31. The estimated usage of the mainline turnpike for the lockdown months is March (50 percent); April and May (30 percent); and June (40 percent). The heaviest losses will be from the Philadelphia area, which accounts for 50 percent of passenger vehicle traffic.

The estimated total loss to passenger toll revenues will be about $128.4 million over these four months.

Toll revenue funds not only commission expenses, but $450 per year goes to PennDOT to fund services across the state, such as mass transit. The Legislature needs to remove this requirement, which has caused the commission to take on tremendous amounts of debt which they will have trouble repaying as long as the shutdown continues. 

Read the full policy briefing here.