A Survey of the Afghan People: Afghanistan in 2019

Bottom Line: While Afghanistan has persistent economic, social and security problems, optimism about the country’s future increased in 2019 as Afghans point to confidence in democracy, and improvements in infrastructure and agriculture.

The Asia Foundation’s Afghanistan survey is “the longest-running barometer of public opinion in Afghanistan. In 2019 “A national sample of 17,812 Afghan respondents aged 18 years and above were surveyed face-to-face across all 34 provinces from July 11 to August 7, 2019.”

One of the survey’s most important data points is “whether Afghans are optimistic or pessimistic about the country’s direction.” Optimism about the country’s future reached its peak in 2013, and then declined year over year until reaching a nadir in 2016. In 2019, just over 36 percent of respondents said “the country is going in the right direction, up from 32.8” percent in 2018. Meanwhile, just over 58 percent said the country was going in the wrong direction, down from just over 61 percent in 2018.

Nearly 56 percent of “Afghans who say the country is moving in the right direction cite improved security,” while nearly half cite “reconstruction/rebuilding/infrastructure.” Both proportions represent an increase from 2018.

For the nearly 56 percent who cited improved security as a reason for optimism, over 26 percent singled out “peace/end of the war,” up from just over 16 percent in 2018. Thirty-two percent cite reconstruction and over 24 percent point to “improvements in governance,” a decrease from just under 29 percent in 2018. Other reasons for optimism include improvements in women’s rights and economic improvement, both up to 14 percent from 11 percent in 2018.

Still, many other Afghans are pessimistic about the future of the country. Nearly three-quarters of these Afghans cite “insecurity/crime” as a reason for their pessimism, while 41 percent cite the economy and 31 percent cite the state over governance. Less than ten percent of pessimistic Afghans point to lack of infrastructure, foreign intervention, and human rights violations.

Respondents were also polled about the best and worst things in their local regions. Nearly 40 percent said that infrastructure improvements were the best thing in their region, while 23 percent said agricultural development and 18 percent said educational opportunities.

Just over 15 percent said there was nothing good in their regions. Relatedly, nearly 40 percent said the lack of utilities and public services was the worst thing in their region, while 36 percent pointed to crime and 33 percent pointed to lack of employment opportunities.

“This year, 74.5% of respondents say that they always, often, or sometimes fear for their personal safety. This represents an increase of over 3 percentage points since 2018.” Fear for personal safety has increased nearly 100 percent since 2006. “Fear while participating in an election” is at just over 63 percent, the highest level ever recorded. Over 93 percent of people have “fear while encountering the Taliban,” while 95 percent fear ISIS.

Just over 58 percent of people say that the Afghan National Police provide security in their area, down 11 points from 2018. Urban respondents are more likely to say the ANP provides security than respondents in rural areas. The number of Afghans who say the ANP improve security is at its lowest level, down to 36 percent from 39 percent in 2018.

Thirty-six percent of Afghans say that a group poses a threat to their local area, with around 69 percent pointing to the Taliban. While the Taliban is seen as a bigger threat in rural than urban areas, there has been a 50 percent increase in people who cite criminals and thieves as a threat to local areas. There was a four percent decrease from 2018 in those who cite ISIS as a threat.

The number of Afghans who say they have no sympathy for the Taliban grew by three percent in 2019, and a greater proportion of those who say they do have sympathy can’t point to a reason why they feel this way. Sixty-four percent of respondents said making peace with the Taliban is possible, up 10 percent from 2018.

Around two-thirds of respondents believe the government is doing a good job, and respondents are more satisfied with provincial governments than in years past. And while nearly 82 percent of Afghans say corruption is a major problem in the country, over 65 percent are “very or somewhat satisfied with the way democracy works in Afghanistan,” up nearly 4 percent from 2018.

Read the full report here.