Preventive Priorities Survey 2020

Bottom Line: This annual survey of foreign policy experts on geopolitical threats to the U.S. along a matrix of likelihood and impact suggests the U.S. is increasingly at risk of conflict. The Homeland Security contingencies of a mass cyber attack and a mass casualty terrorist attack are considered the most pressing threats the U.S. faces. Conflict with Iran or North Korea are deemed the biggest overseas threats.

As the global hegemon, the U.S. is more exposed to risks from overseas conflict. Preventing such conflicts from breaking out is, therefore, a primary consideration for American officials. It is difficult for the U.S. to plan ahead for potential threats because it is occupied with current issues. Yet nipping potential conflicts in the bud before they bloom into full-scale threats is easier and less costly than waiting. Given limited resources, the U.S. should prioritize de-escalating potential foreign policy threats.

Demonstrating a more threatening global environment, more contingencies (13) were identified by respondents as Tier 1 risk concerns than at any time in the past 11 years. Six contingencies were rated as highly likely to occur vs. four last year.

Tier 1 threats that would have a high impact on U.S. interests include:

• A highly disruptive cyberattack on critical U.S. infrastructure
• A major terrorist attack on U.S. soil
• An armed conflict between the U.S. and Iran
• A collapse of denuclearization negotiations with North Korea
• Armed conflict in the South China Sea between China and a Southeast Asian nation
• A severe crisis between Russia and Ukraine
• Deteriorating socio-economic conditions in and mass migration from the Northern Triangle countries of Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras

The worsening of the civil war in Yemen was downgraded from a Tier I to a Tier II concern. This was the only contingency that was downgraded in 2020.

Though they didn't make it into the list of 30 contingencies, foreign policy experts also warned about the growing threat of conflict between China and Hong Kong as well as a growing risk of conflict in the Arctic between the U.S. and Russia. 

Read the full study here.