Risk Realism: The Arms Control Endgame for North Korea Policy

Bottom Line: Denuclearization is an untenable strategy for the United States to take with regard to North Korea. The United States should abandon this strategy in favor of a more measured arms control approach.

There are several reasons why denuclearization is unfeasible.

First, a continued commitment to denuclearization places expensive burdens on the United States and its allies. Second, since denuclearization is “antithetical to Kim Jong Un’s bottom line,” continuing down this path will jeopardize other diplomatic efforts and risk antagonizing North Korea.

General concerns about arms control talks are unfounded and overexaggerated.

Contrary to common concerns, arms talks would not unnecessarily legitimize North Korea or encourage other dictators to develop nuclear weapons, in order to get the same publicity as North Korea. And while U.S. allies in the region may be uncomfortable with any form of nuclear North Korea, a controlled arsenal is better than an escalating arsenal. Finally, successful arms control negotiations could serve as a stepping stone towards denuclearization down the line.

There are several steps the United States can take to achieve arms control.

First, the United States should roll back denuclearization rhetoric and make assurances that it won’t deploy “nuclear-capable bombers” to the Korean Peninsula. Then, the U.S. should negotiate a freeze of nuclear weapons production with Pyongyang, and begin to negotiate a rollback of the existing nuclear arsenal. Finally, the U.S. should “Secure declarations of nuclear inventory,” to ensure that North Korea will deal honestly and openly in the future.

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