Overcoming Inertia: Why It’s Time to End the War in Afghanistan

Bottom Line: The war in Afghanistan has gone on so long not because of necessity, but inertia. Despite what some military and political leaders have said, there is no reason for the United States to remain in Afghanistan, nor is there a clear path to victory over the Taliban. Withdrawal and negotiations are the best thing for U.S. interests.

The war in Afghanistan has persisted in spite of decades of setbacks thanks in part to the framing of military officials.

After a successful invasion, the Taliban retreated to Pakistan and regrouped. By 2006, they were able to ignite a civil war in the region, and currently hold more territory than at any point in 2001. But the United States has remained in the region largely because military leaders want to, both to avoid real or perceived failure, and to prevent what they imagine would be a dangerous Taliban resurgence.

Military officials’ desire to maintain the conflict is rooted in the flawed assumption that a Taliban victory would pose a threat to the United States.

If the United States withdrew from Afghanistan tomorrow, there is no evidence to suggest that the Taliban would resume its role as a state sponsor of terrorism. Al-Qaeda and the Taliban are no longer the allies they once were, and there is no indication that Al-Qaeda has any interest in returning to the region. Even if the Taliban and Al-Qaeda joined forces again, the United States still has the capacity to “bomb and raid in response to a clear and present threat to U.S. security.”

Similarly, continued U.S. engagement in Afghanistan will not bring peace or progress to the region.

It’s not clear that a U.S. defeat would destabilize the Middle East, since other regional and foreign powers would likely adjust to an American withdrawal. Additionally, there is no indication that continued American involvement would help reduce opium production or ensure women’s rights in the country.

The best possible outcome for the United States is a negotiated ceasefire with the Taliban.

Much like in Vietnam, such a policy would put an end to a costly American entanglement, save U.S. lives, and give way to regional autonomy. As part of a ceasefire, the United States could require the Taliban pledge it will not allow terrorist activity to occur in its territory. Without the presence of U.S. troops, the Taliban would “lose its chief recruiting and motivating device,” and the subsequent period of calm would allow Afghans to regain control of their country.

Read the full policy analysis here.