Anticipating a New Russian Military Doctrine in 2020: What it Might Contain and Why it Matters

Bottom line: In 2020, Russia will likely release a new military doctrine that reflects its changing perception of foreign and domestic threats, as well as the nation's recent military engagements.

Several signs indicate that Russia will release an updated military doctrine next year.

For years, Russia has used 2020 as the target date for its modernization efforts, and could want to release a new doctrine to coincide with the completion of these initiatives -- as well as to have a new foundation for "2030" initiatives. Additionally, the military hasn't released a new doctrine since 2014, and many things have changed since then.

The updated doctrine will likely reflect a new Russian approach to various threats.

For instance, the doctrine will likely expand on recent Russian efforts to use "non-military methods before and during military conflict," as well as using active, integrated defense models to "proactively neutralize" both foreign and domestic "threats to state security."

The new doctrine will also reflect Russia's involvement in Syria.

Military officials will likely include a "strategy of limited action," whether setting small, achievable goals in conflict or only committing fixed numbers of troops to targeted campaigns. The doctrine will also likely include a larger role for private military contractors, and a semi-aggressive approach to arms control and weapons development.

The new doctrine will at least partially be directed against the U.S.

In addition to the unabashed emphasis on weapons development, the document will likely critique U.S. foreign policy and "coded barbs" directed at the United States' focus on "great power competition." However, despite all this, it is unlikely that the doctrine will upgrade the United States or NATO to the category of "military threat," which is the highest threat category possible.

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