It's Jan. 9, 2024, just six days from the Iowa caucuses. If that snuck up on you, you're not alone, and there are several reasons for it -- four that come to mind readily.
The first is that they are early this year. In 2020 and 2016, Iowa held its caucuses in the first week of February. And while it's true that in the two Barack Obama election years they were even earlier than now (Jan. 3), mid-February was when they took place from 1984, my first year on the campaign trail, until 2000.
Second, only one political party is competing, and in the other party, the prohibitive frontrunner refuses to debate. There's not as much to cover as usual.
Third, as my colleagues Tom Bevan and Sean Trende have pointed out, there is a dearth of polling from Iowa this year. I expect that will change, perhaps today, but we haven't gotten much new data since mid-December. So any surprising story lines are well hidden.
Is Nikki Haley closing the gap on Donald Trump, as she's doing in New Hampshire? Is all the money Ron DeSantis spent in Iowa making a dent in Trump's support? Is Vivek Ramaswamy this year's version of Rick Santorum?
Ah yes, Santorum. The absence of polling inhibits "horse race" news coverage, which we are counseled to avoid, but I can't resist this one analogy: In 2012, the underfunded and outgunned social conservative and former Pennsylvania senator employed retail politics that took him to every county in Iowa. In near-last place in early December, Santorum closed with a ferocious stretch run -- just as Animal Kingdom had done in the previous spring's Kentucky Derby -- to nip heavily favored Mitt Romney at the wire.
Finally, the reason Iowa may not be on your radar as much as usual is the stagnant nature of the 2024 election season, at least so far. The Democrats have all but outlawed any primary challenge to President Biden, and every time former President Trump is indicted or barred from a ballot or sued, weirdly he rises in the polls.
Trump won't be campaigning in Iowa today: Apparently, he's going to be a D.C. courtroom in yet another lawfare battle. But under the theory that Mother Nature is not happy with us, a polar vortex is bringing frigid and near-blizzard conditions to Iowa today, forcing Haley to cancel a planned event and stranding DeSantis in Florida for the time being.
Carl M. Cannon is the Washington bureau chief for RealClearPolitics. Reach him on Twitter @CarlCannon
