With midterm elections less than two months away, a consensus has developed that Republicans will not do as well as they hoped, in part because they are running poor candidates in Senate races in Arizona and Pennsylvania. Money has poured into those states as GOP donors try to avert disaster. But Republicans should not focus merely on the Senate. Several of the party’s gubernatorial candidates face similar problems. Republicans should prioritize these state races because the winners will control voting policies for the 2024 presidential election.
In Pennsylvania, depending on the poll, Republican nominee for governor Doug Mastriano is trailing either by a few points or by double digits. Democratic nominee Josh Shapiro has consistently outspent Mastriano, and national Republicans have refused to support the GOP candidate. The stakes are high: in 2020, Pennsylvania’s Democratic governor, Tom Wolf, repeatedly held up any bill pushed by the Republican legislature that would limit the use of ballot drop boxes and mail-in ballots. The state’s left-leaning Supreme Court wound up deciding Pennsylvania’s election laws for 2020. Last month, that same Supreme Court invented a state constitutional right to mail-in voting. If Shapiro wins, allowing Democrats to retain the governorship, Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court will remain in control of election laws in 2024.
In Michigan, polling shows the Republican nominee, Tudor Dixon, down by a substantial margin. Earlier this month, reports showed Democratic incumbent Gretchen Whitmer with a 28-1 edge in campaign cash over Dixon. Democrats have jumped on a potential campaign finance controversy involving Dixon’s campaign and highlighted Dixon’s opposition to abortion in cases of rape. Whitmer fought with Republicans over voting laws before and after the 2020 election. Michigan’s attorney general and secretary of state have both pushed far-left voting policies; both lead in the polls for their reelection campaigns. If all three win reelection, they will push the same voting policies for 2024, such as the use of left-wing corporate money to run elections and mass mailing of absentee ballots.
Minnesota has seen its gubernatorial election go from a close contest to a blowout, with the Democratic incumbent, Tim Walz, leading the Republican nominee, Tim Jensen, by 18 points. Walz is outspending Jensen 10 to 1. In 2020, Walz pursued many left-wing changes to voting policy that Republicans challenged in court. Minnesota’s secretary of state and attorney general are also facing reelection, and the two have used their offices to promote liberal voting policies, as well – throwing out a requirement for signature verification and opposing beefed-up election security. Both lead in the polls. Though Minnesota has become more competitive electorally, Democratic dominance in statewide races may diminish that trend in 2024.
Wisconsin’s Republican nominee for governor, Tim Michels, is a self-funding candidate with plenty of money. But the latest poll shows Michels underperforming Republican incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson by four points. Wisconsin governor Tony Evers, a Democrat seeking reelection this year, has vetoed voting-reform proposals. If Evers wins, he will continue these policies through 2024.
The 2020 elections saw record problems in vote-counting and ballot delivery and a loss of faith in the electoral system. Many of the politicians who originated or contributed to these problems are on the ballot in 2022. If these governors win reelection, we should expect a replay. With ticket-splitting voting at a record low, it is increasingly the case that as goes the governor’s race, so goes the secretary of state and attorney general’s races as well. Republicans can’t afford to lose these races.
Even if Republicans win some of the statewide offices in a given state, they could still face resistance if they don’t control other state offices. For instance, Arizona has a Republican governor and a Republican attorney general but a Democratic secretary of state. Secretary of State Katie Hobbs did a terrible job running the 2022 primary election; it took days to decide several of the races. She has claimed that Donald Trump wanted the Post Office to rig the 2020 election; she has tried to throw out ballot verification requirements and has pushed for universal mail-in voting.
Senate races may be getting the bulk of the media attention, but the candidates elected to statewide offices will be making decisions on elections and voting over the next four years that will affect who becomes president and who wins seats in Congress. If Republicans really want to win in 2024, they should focus their resources now on turning these key state races around.
Todd Carney is a lawyer and frequent contributor to RealClearPolitics. He earned his juris doctorate from Harvard Law School.